Emerging risks: The “Grexit”

first_imgAmong the emerging risks that The Rochdale Group monitors are geopolitical threats. These include things like last year’s worries over Russia’s annexation of the Crimea and its forays into Ukraine; the potential threat of a nuclear Iran; and the re-emergent fears over a Greek exit from the European Union (EU), which has been labeled the “Grexit.”On February 4, the stock market reacted in sharply negative fashion to the Grexit threat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than 100 points within a half hour of the closing bell, before the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it could no longer assume a successful outcome from the new Greek government’s bailout negotiations with its lenders, and thus it would no longer accept Greek debt as collateral for ECB loans. By the market’s close, the Dow had shed the day’s gains, dipping into negative territory before closing virtually flat on the day.Following the closing bell, one market pundit posed the question, “Does Europe matter?” followed by her own reply: “Today’s market reaction proves it does.”From a global risk perspective, Europe certainly matters, to its own nations, to the U.S. and to emerging markets. But the ECB announcement regarding Greek debt begs the more pertinent question: does Greece matter?From our perspective, it does not. In spite of the recent election of an anti-austerity leader, we view the risk of a Grexit as less than in 2009, when the Greek crisis reached its zenith and the world’s economies were in a much more fragile state than they are today. And in the end, the new government is likely to capitulate after some re-negotiation of the austerity terms posed on Greece by the EU, for a very simple reason: Greece needs the EU more than the EU needs Greece.Figure 1 below depicts Greece’s GDP as a percent of selected other nations, as well as the EU. Greek GDP represents 1.4% of the aggregate GDP of the EU, according to the IMF. Clearly, Greece matters little to the EU. Its GDP is 6.7% of the EU’s largest member (Germany) and 17.8% of that of Spain, another beleaguered EU economy that has largely overcome its Great Recession struggles.Does Greece matter to the U.S.? No. Its GDP is also about 1.4% of ours. Does it matter to the emerging markets – the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China)? Its GDP ranges from 6.7% to 11.8% of those countries’ – again, no. Greek GDP is less than that of relatively small countries like the Netherlands, Turkey, Nigeria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Do we hear anyone claiming that the Netherlands “matters,” in terms of a global economic threat? No. If anything, given the recent plunge in oil prices, countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Nigeria matter more than Greece, given their dependence on oil and their larger total output.If Greece were a U.S. state, it would rank 25th in terms of gross output. Among the states with higher output than Greece are Louisiana, Connecticut, Colorado, Indiana and Missouri. Arguably, those states matter more to the health of the U.S. and global economy than does Greece.Figure 1 – Greek GDP as a Percent of Selected Countries and the EUWhat about the risk to holders of Greek sovereign debt? The EU owns about 10% of Greece’s outstanding debt, spread across its 28 member nations. Greece’s public sector holds about 8%, while world governments hold about 7%. The IMF holds about 4%, and EU member central banks, in aggregate, hold less than 4%. The three largest non-Greek private bank holders of Greek debt own about another 4%. Even if Greece were to outright default on all its debt – an unlikely scenario – none of these owners of its debt would likely experience a catastrophic loss. A default would surely crush Greece’s own banking system, but that wouldn’t significantly worsen the scenario of a sovereign default, and it makes such a scenario all the less likely.In short, while we love olives, ouzo and souvlakis, in terms of global risk, Greece doesn’t matter – in spite of what a jittery stock market may try to convince us. What does that mean to your credit union? In spite of the headlines or market reaction, a Grexit – even if it were to occur – would have minimal impact on the U.S. economy and interest rates. What happens here at home – the price of oil, the job growth trend, the strength of the dollar – will have far greater implications for the future path of interest rates, and for consumer trends, than what happens in Greece. 2SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr,Brian Hague Brian has more than 25 years’ experience in financial institutions and the capital markets, and has devoted 21 years to serving credit unions through various roles at CNBS, LLC, a … Web: www.rochdaleparagon.com Detailslast_img read more

IMCA Modified tour dates tote $1,000 to win checks in Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota

first_imgBILLINGS, Mont. – Two upcoming tours traveling in three states will give Xtreme Motor Sports IMCA Modified drivers nine opportunities to win $1,000 over the course of just 10 days.All feature races in the June 25-29 Interstate IMCA Modified Challenge Series and the July 1-4 Warriors Rendezvous in Montana series are qualifying events for the 2016 Fast Shafts All-Star Invitational ballot.Pit gates open at noon and racing starts at 7 p.m. for each event in the Interstate Challenge, which opens Saturday, June 25 at Billings Motorsports Park in Montana.The tour is at Sheridan, Wyo., Speedway on Sunday, June 26; at Casper, Wyo., Speedway on Monday, June 27; and at Gillette, Wyo., Thunder Speedway on Tuesday, June 28 before concluding Wednesday, June 29 at Black Hills Speedway in Rapid City, S.D.More information about Interstate Challenge events is available from Ed Kirchoff at 307 682-8866.After a day off, Billings hosts the first two events in the Warriors Rendezvous on Friday and Satur­day, July 1 and 2, which double as the track’s traditional Rebel Run special. Pit gates open at 3 p.m., the grandstand opens at 5:30 p.m. and racing starts at 7 p.m.Electric City Speedway at Great Falls has a pair of holiday events Sunday, July 3 and Monday, July 4. Gates open at 3 p.m., the grandstand opens at 6 p.m. and the first green flag flies at 7:30 p.m.More information is available from Mike Quigley at 775 790-1408 or from Dan Mann at 406 899-7105.IMCA Speedway Motors Weekly Racing National, Larry Shaw Racing Western Region, Allstar Performance State and local track points, where applicable, will be awarded each night.last_img read more

David Ortiz shooting brings well-wishes, support from players

first_imgAs news spread that former Red Sox star David Ortiz had been shot in the Dominican Republic on Sunday night, the baseball world turned to social media to support the player affectionately known as “Big Papi.”According to CNN, Ortiz was shot in the back “by a motorcyclist who approached Ortiz directly.”  The local chief of police told Dionisio Soldevila, a reporter from the Dominican Republic, that Ortiz was in stable condition. Ortiz was taken into surgery and told doctors “please don’t let me die. I’m a good man,” according to Soldevila.CNN reported that police have detained multiple people in connection with the shooting.Ortiz, who retired in 2016, was born in Santo Domingo, where the incident took place. The 10-time All-Star won three World Series and spent fourteen of his 20 MLB seasons with Boston. His friendly demeanor made him extremely popular with fans, players and coaches from other teams. Here’s a sampling of some of the well-wishes posted to Twitter for Ortiz on Sunday night.Our thoughts are with David Ortiz, who is reportedly hospitalized after being shot in his hometown of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, per @Enrique_Rojas1 . pic.twitter.com/IH3Qjxn0BT— MLB (@MLB) June 10, 2019I’m at peace knowing you out of danger; you a strong man Compai, can’t wait to hear your voice. My thoughts and prayers are with you, see you soon.Me siento tranquilo de saber que estás fuera de peligro, usted es fuerte Compai, ya quiero oírle la voz. Orando, nos vemos pronto pic.twitter.com/jdSnNsM7eI— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) June 10, 2019Thoughts and prayers going out to @davidortiz … 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼— Mike Trout (@MikeTrout) June 10, 2019Keeping @davidortiz in my prayers. God willing he will be okay and recover quick. 🙏🏻🙏🏻— Gleyber Torres (@TorresGleyber) June 10, 2019Praying for Big Papi. Oraciones con @davidortiz . Fuerza Big Papi. 🙏🏾— Kenley Jansen (@kenleyjansen74) June 10, 2019Prayers up for my bro @davidortiz man. One of the best human beings I’ve ever met. Hate seeing that. Hoping for the best! 🙏🏾— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6) June 10, 2019Anxiously waiting for more news. In the meantime, only prayers for @davidortiz , Tiffany and their family. https://t.co/IlE2v4g38t— Alex Rodriguez (@AROD) June 10, 2019Papi defines Boston Strong… get well soon my friend!!! pic.twitter.com/QFFJ4nvQnU— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) June 10, 2019last_img read more

Harry Carson Leads Concussion Discussion Among High School Athletes

first_imgBy John Sorce |RED BANK – Former National Football League (NFL) linebacker and lifetime New York Giant Harry Carson, 63, led a discussion on concussions among high school athletes at the Victoria J. Mastrobuono Library at Two River Theater on Wednesday, May 3.“This is an issue that is very much near and dear to my heart,” Carson said. “I played during an era in which you just kind of shook it off when you saw stars and got back on the field.“I didn’t realize what was going on until two years after I left football. I went to my doctor for my yearly physical. At the end he said everything was fine, but he asked if I had anything else going on. I told him about my issues with bright lights and loud noises. I went down the list of issues I was dealing with and he referred me to a specialist. I went and got tested and the diagnosis came back as mild post-concussion syndrome.”A sports-related concussion is defined as traumatic brain injury induced by bio-mechanical forces. They may be caused by either a direct blow to the head, face or neck or elsewhere on the body with an impulsive force transmitted to the head. Keane noted that the new guidelines are in the British Journal of Medicine and can be downloaded for free.There has been an estimated increase from 1.1 to 1.9 million sports and recreation-related concussions occuring in children 18 or younger annually. Kids are more involved in sports and playing more frequently on travel teams, and that added exposure is what Keane believes is leading to this increase.Despite popular opinion, extended rest is not recommended for concussions and may actually prolong symptoms. “The whole idea is you give the brain rest and time to recover. But we don’t know how much or how long, or if that’s even doing anything,” Keane said. “We want to get the kids right back to school in some way. When we prescribe rest for long periods, we are actually creating more problems.”Regardless of the modern enhancements the game of football is trying to provide to protect its players, Stephanie Reynolds, D.O., chairman of Emergency Medicine at Riverview Medical Center, stated there is nothing that can be done when it comes to protecting the head. “Helmets are only as good as the brain that’s inside. I always tell parents there is no helmet that will protect their child’s brain,” she said. Carson wants coaches, athletic directors, trainers and especially parents to know what children are getting themselves into before they sign up. “Every parent needs to understand the neurological risks before allowing their kids to play football,” Carson said. “Unfortunately, I have seen a lot of people who have played at the high school level who are now in their twenties and they are dealing with some serious behavioral problems that can be traced back to the hits that they took when they played contact sports in high school.” Kristine Keane, Psy.D., System Wide Clinical Director of Hackensack Meridian Health, began the event by explaining the dif ferent concussion recommendations. The Zurich pediatric concussion guidelines, which originated in 2001, were “more like a consensus statement.”These guidelines were expanded and renewed in 2008 and again in 2012 before the Berlin guidelines were discussed in October 2016 during the fifth international conference on concussion in sport. The Berlin guidelines were released this year.That switch is what brought Old Bridge High School athletic trainer Ralph Di Iorio to the event. “I want to continue to update my knowledge for concussion evaluation and treatment,” Di Iorio said. “They talked about the new guidelines that came out. Knowing those changes are going to help us stay current with our treatment and evaluations of concussions at the high school level.” If Carson was never diagnosed, he does not know where he would be today. “I was very fortunate in retrospect to be diagnosed because what I was dealing with was something that I kept to myself,” he said. “There were times where I thought I was literally going crazy because I really didn’t know what was going on.”Carson owes a lot to the game of football. He had a 13-year career in the NFL, making the Pro Bowl nine times, and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006. He does not want his grandson to suffer from football’s side effects. “If I knew then what I know now, I would be very hesitant to play the game again,” Carson said. “I don’t want to be a ‘Debbie Downer’ here, but this issue of concussions is very real. When my grandson, who is seven now, was two or three years old, I made a decision then that he will not play football. He can play any other sport, but he knows he’s not playing football.”Reynolds noted she never negotiates with her kids; she strictly lays out the facts. At the end of the day, the parents have a difficult decision to make. But for Reynolds, the choice is clear. “If you decide that your child’s brain is not as important as a $50,000 [scholarship], that’s on you.” she said.This article was first published in the May 11-18, 2017 print edition of The Two River Times.last_img read more

Bombers settle for bronze at West Kootenay Championships

first_imgBy The Nelson Daily SportsThe L.V. Rogers Junior Bombers bounced back after being knocked out of the championships round to claim the consolation title at the West Kootenay Junior Boy’s Basketball Tournament Saturday at the Hangar.The Bombers dumped Rossland Royals 56-31 in the consolation final with Tobin Eberle and Ethan Perkins leading the way.The contest was close through two quarters before the Bombers poured it on against the Royals.Eberle and Perkins led the Bombers in scored, each with 13 while Grayson Arabia added 11.LVR, consisting of Grade 9s, opened six-team tourney by blasting Stanley Humphries Rockers 39-20.Perkins was the high man for LVR with 19 points while Arabia added seven.The Bombers then ran into a powerful Grand Forks squad, losing 67-37 to the Wolves. Perkins and Eberle continued their scoring touch around the hoop, finishing with 11 and 10 points, respectively.Grand Forks, winner of the pool with a 2-0 record, edged out J. Lloyd Crowe Hawks 27-26 to claim the West Kootenay title. [email protected]last_img read more

A’s spring training preview: Kyler Murray, Jesus Luzardo among biggest questions

first_imgMESA, Ariz. — When the A’s gather at Hohokam Stadium on Monday for their first workout of the spring, they’ll be kicking off a season with something they havent had for a while: confidence.This isn’t the hope-we-make-the-playoffs type of confidence. This is the we’ve-been-there-before type of confidence.The A’s are coming off a season in which they not only reached the playoffs for the first time since 2014, but also went blow-for-blow with the Houston Astros, winning 97 games and earning …last_img

NBA rescinds Draymond Green’s technical in Game 2 vs. Rockets

first_imgDraymond Green has three more technical fouls to spend this postseason, now that his technical from Tuesday night’s Game 2 win over the Rockets was rescinded.Green and Houston center Nene got tangled up after a free-throw attempt in the second half. They exchanged seemingly minor words but were assessed matching technical fouls.It would have been Green’s fourth of the playoffs, leaving him just three away from a one-game suspension, but the Warriors were confident Tuesday night that the NBA …last_img

Military Separations: What helps, what hinders

first_imgReferences CategoriesFamily Development, Military Families Learning Network Tagsdeployment By Kacy Mixon, M.S., LMFTIt is well documented that families are negatively impacted by military separations. Even more, the type, length, and ambiguity surrounding military separation can bring about devastating life stressors for families. For instance, extended or repeated combat tours require added demands on service members’ families[1]. Many families who demonstrate resilience and preparedness during military separation still suffer from the loss of their loved ones’ affection, companionship, support, co-parenting, etc. Protective factors such as flexible gender roles, active coping strategies and social support aid in a family’s ability to develop resiliency despite the adverse circumstances that military deployments and duty-related leave bring about. Conversely, families that are isolated, inexperienced with military separation, or are already struggling with a heavy load of stressors are at risk during military separations[2]. Professionals working with military families are in a unique position to incorporate this information into the services and treatments provided. Below is a list detailing some of the protective and risk factors that may be helpful to consider.Wiens, T., Boss, P. (2006). Maintaining family resiliency before, during and after military separation. In C.A. Castro, A.B. Adler, and T.W. Britt (Eds.), Military life: The psychology of serving in peace and combat (Vol.3). (pp.13-38). Westport, CT: Praeger Secrurity International (pp. 20-21). [2] Wiens, T.W., Boss, P. (2006). Maintaining family resiliency before, during and after military separation. In C.A. Castro, A.B. Adler, and T.W. Britt (Eds.), Military life: The psychology of serving in peace and combat (Vol. 3). (pp.13-38). Westport, CT: Praeger Secrurity International.This post was written by Kacy Mixon, M.S., LMFT, Social Media Specialist.  She is a member of the MFLN Family Development (FD) team which aims to support the development of professionals working with military families. Find out more about the Military Families Learning Network FD concentration on our website, on Facebook, on Twitter, YouTube, and on LinkedIn. [1] Lester, P., Leskin, G., Woodward, K., Saltzman, W., Nash, W., Mogil, C., Paley, B., Beardslee, W. (2001). Wartime deployment and military children: Applying Prevention science to enhance family resilience. In S.M. Wadsworth & D. Riggs (Eds.) Risk and resilience in U.S. Military families. New York, NY: Springer.last_img read more

Brisbane Touch Championships

first_imgMen’s Open competition front runners Lazers will take on Country Club United (CCU) which will surely be a close match after previous results throughout the season. CCU looking to take the crown after being runners up in the past 2 seasons, through Michael Baartz and Brett Hughes (2009 Trans Tasman Mixed Open Squad) and Cobras Open Men’s players Sebe Rey, Tom Eyles, Tom Quinlivan and Benny Wiezorek.Lazers will rely on the brother combinations of Karl, Leon and Troy Skinner while looking for a number of touchdowns from Drumayne Dayberg-Muir.The Women’s Open final will be played between Southern Storm and Caboolture Colts. Colts, after finishing third after the rounds, knocked off Crushers in round one of the finals and then beat second placed Uni Rebels last week. Colts sister combinations of Peta & Hayley Rogerson aswell as Gemma & Nikki Ethridge will be tough to handle.Storm, while being undefeated drew with Colts earlier in the season. Storm is packed with a number of Under 18 & Under 20’s Australian Representatives guided by 2009 Trans Tasman players Sam & Emily Hopkin and Sarah Spacie.Men’s Division 2A will be contested by Dodgers and Uni Rebels Maroon. Dodgers have recoreded an undefeated season registering 8 wins and 1 draw in the tounds.Dodgers defeated Rebels in round 7 of the competition, but rebels have had some good wins in the past few weeks.Division 2B will be played out between Uni Rebels Blue and Tigers. Rebels defeated Tigers in their round clash, and when they met in the first week of the finals series. Tigers had a close win over Southern Storm and a convincing win in over CCU their other finals matches.Womnen’s Division 2A final will be played out between Southern Storm 18’s and First Contact. First Contact defeated Storm in the round matches, but Storm turned the tables with a convincing win in round one of the finals.Division 2B final is between Uni Rebels Maroon and Caboolture Colts. Colts have come from third place after the rounds to knock off Tigers and Uni Rebels Gold in finals matches. Rebels Maroon narrowly defeated Colts in round 10, 3-2.Division 2C will see Southern Storm 27’s take on Tigers 18’s. Tigers have come from finishing fourth after the rounds to beat third placed Eagles 18’s and second placed Sharks 27’s. Storm defeated Tigers 4-3 in the rounds earlier this season.Men’s 30’s division will be contested between the undefeated Eagles and second placed Southern Storm Sharks. Storm narrowly defeated Country Club United to make it into the finals, while Eagles have defeated Storm on four occasions this year.Finals Times5:00pm Field 1 – Women’s Division 2AField 2 – Men’s Division 2BField 5 – Men’s 306:00pm Field 1 – Men’s Division 2AField 2 – Women’s Division 2CField 5 – Women’s Division 2B7:00pm Field 1 – Women’s Open8:00pm Field 1 – Men’s Openslast_img read more

23 days agoMan City midfielder Bernardo Silva risks 6-match ban

first_imgMan City midfielder Bernardo Silva risks 6-match banby Paul Vegas23 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveManchester City midfielder Bernardo Silva has been charged by the FA regarding his social media post to teammate Benjamin Mendy.Silva tweeted a picture of a black cartoon character alongside Mendy as a youngster.He wrote to the FA to apologise for any offence caused but faces a potential six-match ban after the charge.An FA statement read: “Bernardo Silva has been charged with misconduct for a breach of FA Rule E3 in relation to a social media post on 22 September 2019.”It is alleged that the Manchester City player’s activity breaches FA Rule E3(1) as it was insulting and/or improper and/or brought the game into disrepute.”It is further alleged that the activity constitutes an “Aggravated Breach”, which is defined in FA Rule E3(2), as it included reference, whether expressed or implied, to race and/or colour and/or ethnic origin.”The midfielder has until 9 October 2019 to provide a response.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your saylast_img read more